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When do you think the Confederation Line will open to the public?


Confederation Line opening  

14 members have voted

  1. 1. When do you think the Confederation Line will open to the public?

    • Before the end of May
      0
    • Sometime in June
      6
    • After Canada Day
      8

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  • Poll closed on 10/05/19 at 01:00 PM

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All seems to indicate we are in the final stages before the opening of the Confederation Line.

But for now, no one really knows for sure.

Here is a poll set to close half an hour before the next FEDCO meeting, which could well be the stage for the announcement of the Grand Opening Date.

 

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I personally believe after Canada Day, but still hope I'll be wrong. As far as we have seen from testing, it has been less than 10 days (tops) where the alignment has been fully served by double

I would think opening around mid-July. I see it being possible if all the stars align for it to open before July 1st, but if it was me, and the opening could occur just days before July 1st, I would d

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I personally believe after Canada Day, but still hope I'll be wrong.

As far as we have seen from testing, it has been less than 10 days (tops) where the alignment has been fully served by double trains. Frequency has been on the rise, but there seems to still be a gap in continuous service, either due to fleet availability or training requirements. If we assume that, starting next monday, RTG starts their 12 days of consecutive, no-fault, regular service, and succeeds, this puts us at May 17, at the very minimum. From there, if handover to the city is completed, the city estimates a month (putting us around June 17) for revenue service.

However, this is a relatively dangerous assumption: it assumes that Rideau is less than 12 days from completion, and handover occurs within the next few days after completion of testing. If handover occurs in June, very likely that the city wont be able to complete the transition by Canada Day, or would likely push it back a few days to avoid an opening date 2-3 days before Canada Day. It also assumes RTG gets it 'on the first try', otherwise it puts us easily towards the end of May for handover, but gives them the time to finish work at Rideau.

On a positive note: seeing most of the fencing going down, nameplates going up at most stations and "operational" stickers installed on some of the trains (reserved seating, door operation, etc.) means we are closer than ever. I'm really hyped to catch the trains on opening day, and produce content on my Youtube channel. Until then, I guess all we can do is continue to spot and observe the testing!

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10 hours ago, DavidBellerive said:

I personally believe after Canada Day, but still hope I'll be wrong.

As far as we have seen from testing, it has been less than 10 days (tops) where the alignment has been fully served by double trains. Frequency has been on the rise, but there seems to still be a gap in continuous service, either due to fleet availability or training requirements. If we assume that, starting next monday, RTG starts their 12 days of consecutive, no-fault, regular service, and succeeds, this puts us at May 17, at the very minimum. From there, if handover to the city is completed, the city estimates a month (putting us around June 17) for revenue service.

However, this is a relatively dangerous assumption: it assumes that Rideau is less than 12 days from completion, and handover occurs within the next few days after completion of testing. If handover occurs in June, very likely that the city wont be able to complete the transition by Canada Day, or would likely push it back a few days to avoid an opening date 2-3 days before Canada Day. It also assumes RTG gets it 'on the first try', otherwise it puts us easily towards the end of May for handover, but gives them the time to finish work at Rideau.

On a positive note: seeing most of the fencing going down, nameplates going up at most stations and "operational" stickers installed on some of the trains (reserved seating, door operation, etc.) means we are closer than ever. I'm really hyped to catch the trains on opening day, and produce content on my Youtube channel. Until then, I guess all we can do is continue to spot and observe the testing!

I have a couple more questions for you David.

Why would they avoid opening 2 or 3 days before Canada Day?

I had, in the back of my mind, the idea they might open right on Canada Day. For a piece of infrastructure named "Confederation Line", it could not be more perfect!

My other question is why do they need a full month after the handover to be able to open to the public?

The train operators are being trained as we speak and support staff (stations' maintenance; ticket machines troubleshooting, etc.) takes much less than a month to train. On top of that we have three weeks from opening day of full parallel bus service which will be a kind of final dressed rehearsal for everyone before the buses disappear from the downtown core.

 

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2 hours ago, Phil said:

Why would they avoid opening 2 or 3 days before Canada Day?

My other question is why do they need a full month after the handover to be able to open to the public?

Canada Day puts the most pressure on the downtown core transit system. Even with a "plan B" in place, any disruption is far from desirable, as it would affect the entire timetable for most routes in the city. While having both systems run in parallel to another sounds ideal, it creates confusion. It gives the option to people to "wait the last minute" before switching, but also spreads out the already limited resources of OC Transpo. Opening around Canada Day opens a larger problem in the event that the line needs to go out of service, creating "chaos", making the risk / benefit unfavourable.

Waiting a month after handover is more to ensure the staff is scheduled properly and capacity to serve is where it needs to be. Layoffs are gonna happen, diesel orders reduced, equipments sold or scrapped. The longer you have both going on, or the less prepared you are, the more this extra capacity is wasted. Plus, having a full month gives them the time to ensure timetables are "relatively" synced, but also that the staff is trained for the transition. After all, the Confederation Line, for many, has one chance to make a positive impression, and it is important everything is done for it to go right and not wrong.

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Hopefully by the end of July, I am trying to stay positive but it seemed doomed from the start. It's been pushed back 4-5 times already. So much for on track to 2018! Be lucky to see revenue service by December. 

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8 hours ago, Jebus05 said:

My guess is late August early September, there is no way they are making July.

Hand over of the system will be mid July and city testing will most likely complete Mid-August. 

I hope the FEDCO meeting on Friday 10 May, will give us answers.

Other projects larger in scope (longer entirely underground lines) have been completed way faster, on time and on budget. And they are safe. Just look at the Métro in Montréal. They started digging in 1962 and the first 20 stations, all underground, were delivered in October of 1966. Do I need to reiterate that we have 13 stations, 3 of which are underground, and St-Laurent did not need to be entirely built like the others

Testing would take the entire Spring and Summer??????

What would be the financial implications of that? No revenue until no-body-knows-when.

18 hours ago, Chad A said:

Be lucky to see revenue service by December.  

If it goes that far, the City should take legal action.

We don't have access to our O-Train, but we are being taken for a ride.

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I think comparing the Montreal Metro (or most other heavy / light rail programs) to the Confederation Line is a bit unfair.

Back then, the logistics and planification implications for those kinds of projects was considerably more limited, making it easier to build any massive projects, but Montreal had been eyeing the construction of a metro for almost 50 years by that point. Rail in Ottawa is relatively recent, with the Trillium in 2001, the first proposed expansion in 2006, and the vision that became the Confederation Line in 2008, with "serious" planning in 2012. The Montreal Metro also borrowed a lot from the Paris Metro, both in construction techniques but technologies. On the other end, the Confederation Line is a different kind of technical challenge with the entire alignment operating in ATO / CBTC, as well as sporting a "new" rolling stock and being "the first" of many LRT projects to appear in Canada.

As a reminder to everyone, the problem is not with the stations themselves, but seems to be systems and train-related, but it is hard to know for sure given the limited access we have to information (Freedom of Information Requests have been, on numerous occasions, been blocked by RTG and the city, even though it often seems the city itself doesn't know what exactly is going on.).

As for revenue service, the city has contractual agreements with RTG. Whenever RTG misses a deadline for completion, the City can withhold 1 million from the subsequent payment, but also keeps track of all the additional expenses linked to the train not being in function. The second part is more complicated, since we don't know for sure if RTG can be held liable for those additional costs. Before any legal action can be taken, negotiations, mediation and other processes are in place so that it doesn't go to court (increasing costs for all parties). It is not in the interest of any party to end up in court, as it can lead to the disclosure of considerably more details than either party might be willing to share.

 

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I would think opening around mid-July. I see it being possible if all the stars align for it to open before July 1st, but if it was me, and the opening could occur just days before July 1st, I would decide to wait even a few days after July 1st. While the line could definitely help on Canada Day, I would prefer seeing it remain in mint condition rather than the crowds and scuffing it may receive that day.

Lets hope there is some news on Monday as to what decision was reached. Typically a memo is sent to council and then shared with the media for these types of things. If so, I will be sure to share it on the site as soon as the email goes out to media and I receive it.

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  • Shane changed the title to When do you think the Confederation Line will open to the public?
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At this point, as we know the 12 days of starting hasn't started yet, I still believe either mid or late July. I don't believe RTG can get the 12 days on the first try (putting us already around the end of May), and given the scepticism on the vehicles being ready, I don't believe the auditor and the city will accept the current "significant completion milestone". Sure the train not "fully operational" is not a security deficiency, but it means the line currently cannot operate reliably at the service standard. Handover will be done before June 30, not too afraid of that, but we ain't riding in June. ?

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